Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni reverted to seasonal TCCOR earlier Saturday. 1:40 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 7, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa for Tropical Storm Chan-hom, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. Chan-hom is forecast to pass 222 miles northeast of Kadena at 5 a.m. Friday, then curve sharply northeast, maintaining typhoon-strength as it passes 206 miles south-southeast of Sasebo and 179 miles south-southeast of Iwakuni between 10 a.m. and 8 p.m. Saturday. More to come at mid-day Friday. 12:15 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 10, Japan time: Expect a rainy, gusty Columbus Day weekend as Tropical Storm Chan-hom remains forecast to track well south of the Tokyo area, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center. More around midnight. Yokosuka Naval Base's weather forecast calls for continued rain with winds subsiding throughout Sunday. 5 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 6, Japan time: U.S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. If Chan-hom stays on current heading, JTWC projects it to miss Kyushu and Shikoku islands to their southeast, passing 255 miles away from Sasebo and 187 miles away from Iwakuni between 3 p.m. and midnight Friday.

Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni has also set TCCOR Storm Watch, at mid-morning Thursday. Sasebo's extended forecast calls for northeasterly winds between 18 and 23 mph sustained and 40-mph gusts Friday evening into Saturday morning.
Currently, JTWC forecasts Chan-hom to pass 41 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base, still packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts at center. 11:45 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 8, Japan time: Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast tracks continue edging Typhoon Chan-hom further away from the Tokyo area than Storm Tracker reported Wednesday. Yokosuka's weather forecast calls for rain through Sunday turning fair on Monday with northerly winds peaking at 18- to 23-mph sustained with 35-mph gusts early Sunday morning. JTWC reports that the window for Chan-hom to continue strengthening is closing; current projection is at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at mid-evening Thursday as it starts curving northeast toward the Tokyo area.

Still some room and time for change.

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At 9 p.m. Friday, Chan-hom was 439 miles southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, trekking east-northeast at 7 mph and had weakened to 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center. Weather Flight also forecasts 1 inch of rain associated with Chan-hom.

Model-track guidance is somewhat divided, though forecast-ensemble best tracks keep Chan-hom just offshore from the Tokyo area.

At 3 p.m., Chan-hom was 435 miles east of Kadena Air Base, had picked up forward speed, moving northwest at 13 mph packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. More to follow at midnight and again at mid-day Tuesday. Forecast-ensemble best tracks also show disparity. Chan-hom is forecast to pass 289 miles southeast of Sasebo and 231 miles south-southeast of Iwakuni between 4 p.m. Friday and 1 p.m. Saturday. 8 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 7, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa for Tropical Storm Chan-hom, provided by Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. 7 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 4, Japan time: A tropical cyclone formation alert was issued at 6 p.m. Japan time on disturbance 90W Invest by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. UPDATED 8 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 11, Japan time: Joint Typhoon Warning Center indicated in its latest update on Tropical Storm Chan-hom that there is some potential for it to regenerate as it moves south toward warmer water in the coming days. Model-track guidance and forecast-ensemble best tracks have come into better alignment on a track southeast away from Japan in the long term. Chan-hom is forecast to pass 276 miles northeast of Kadena at 1 a.m. Friday, then curve sharply northeast, maintaining typhoon strength as it passes 228 miles south-southeast of Sasebo Naval Base and 191 miles south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni between 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. Saturday. Model-track guidance and forecast-ensemble best tracks also show similar disparity. Fleet Activities Yokosuka set TCCOR 3 at noon Thursday. Disparity remains in model-track guidance, while forecast ensembles continue to struggle to resolve Chan-hom, with some solutions showing Chan-hom curving south and west in the late term.
Chan-hom is forecast to remain a strong tropical storm as it passes 51 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka at 1 a.m. Sunday. More this evening. Weather Flight also forecasts between 1 to 2 inches of rain associated with Chan-hom. If Chan-hom stays on its present heading, JTWC projects it to peak at Category 1-equivalent intensity, 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts, at mid-morning Friday, still well away from land masses and weakening as it heads toward Kyushu's southern tip. But there remains much uncertainty regarding Chan-hom's forecast track. Chan-hom is forecast to pass 283 miles northeast of Kadena at 4 p.m. Thursday, 215 miles south-southeast of Sasebo at 3 a.m. Saturday and 164 miles south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at 1 p.m. Saturday.

U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3: Conditions should improve but rain should continue throughout the week.

Model-track guidance has come into better alignment, but the forecast ensembles remain all over the lot.

Weather Flight also forecasts 1/2 inch of rain associated with Chan-hom. TV.

Middle East. Heavy rain, flooding and landslides are affecting Japan's east coast near Tokyo.

JTWC then projects Chan-hom to curve due east, passing 169 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka and 186 south-southeast of Zama and Atsugi, packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at center. Model solutions are inconclusive at this point. Fleet Activities Yokosuka has directed Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All Clear, while Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi remained in TCCOR Storm Watch as of 6 p.m.; expect the all clear to be issued soon.

Long-term, JTWC forecasts Chan-hom to weaken, but remain a strong tropical storm, passing 49 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at 6 a.m. Sunday, still packing 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center. In short, too early to tell at this point what it might do. If Chan-hom stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to peak at 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Thursday, then curve northeast, pick up forward speed and gradually weaken as it passes south of Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu over the weekend. U.S. bases on Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Kyushu remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch. If Chan-hom stays on present course, JTWC forecasts it to peak at Category 2-equivalent intensity, 98-mph sustained winds and 121-mph gusts at about mid-morning Thursday, still well east of Okinawa and south-southeast of Kyushu, then weaken as it moves north. But there's still a vast disparity in model-track guidance, though forecast-ensemble best tracks depict Chan-hom moving further south of the Tokyo area than previously reported. This post will be updated at mid-day Monday. Not destructive winds, but strong nonetheless.

JTWC then forecasts Chan-hom to pick up forward speed and remain a strong tropical storm as it passes 92 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at 7 p.m. Sunday. 6:50 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 7, Japan time: Chan-hom has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. U.S. bases throughout Japan remain in seasonal tropical cyclone conditions of readiness. Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Kyushu has set TCCOR Storm Watch. Midnight Sunday, Oct. 4, Japan time: Disturbance 90W Invest remained well southeast of Japan and model solutions remained an exercise in guesswork overnight Sunday into Monday. At 9 a.m., Chan-hom was 323 miles southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, wobbling northeast at 12 mph with 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts. Model-track guidance and forecast ensembles show much the same.

JTWC forecasts Chan-hom to pass 240 miles south-southeast of Sasebo at 5 p.m. Friday, then 176 south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni at 1 a.m. Saturday.